South Africa: 961MW Of New Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in The First 10 Months Of 2024

Recently, data from the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) showed that in the first 10 months of this year, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in South Africa reached 961MW, compared to 2430MW in the same period of 2023.

SAPVIA stated that the newly added solar energy capacity this year is entirely composed of private projects, and pointed out that no publicly procured solar power plants have been put into operation since 2019.

However, a 495MW public utility scale state-owned solar power plant is currently under full construction, with an expected 375MW capacity to be connected to the grid by 2024 and 120MW capacity by early 2026; Another 880MW project is currently undergoing post development and is planned to be completed by 2025.

Based on the registration trend in the private sector, SAPVIA predicts that the quarterly growth rate of the South African Small Business (C&I) solar market (with installed capacity between 30kW and 1MW) and the utility scale market will reach 8% to 15% in the next two years.

SAPVIA stated that the seventh bidding window of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Program (REIPPPP) will further drive demand for state-owned power plants on a utility scale, which will connect 1.8 GW of new solar projects to the grid by the end of 2028.

SAPVIA stated that from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of this year, the installed capacity of the large C&I (installed capacity between 1 MW and 50 MW) market has decreased by 24%.

One reason for the decrease in installation volume in 2024 is the emergence of new aggregators and traders, which has intensified competition on the supply side, "the association explained." In addition, the suspension of load shedding since March 2024 has made bilateral power purchase agreements a viable option for large C&I users

The SAPVIA report states that compared to 2023, the residential solar market in South Africa has decreased by 60% to 80%, mainly due to the suspension of load shedding, with most household installations adopting load shedding protection devices that combine solar energy and batteries.

The association stated that economic factors are expected to drive future demand for residential photovoltaic installations, and pointed out that the country is discussing demand side incentive measures, including restoring personal income tax incentives related to photovoltaics, comprehensively reforming energy recovery plans to make it easier for middle-income households to access solar energy, and introducing competitive energy grid credit programs.

The association also stated, "These supply-demand dynamics are expected to bring stable and sustainable growth rates to the South African residential photovoltaic market in 2025 and 2026

SAPVIA CEO Dr. Rethabile Melamu stated that due to the growing demand for clean energy, South Africa's photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to increase from 6.68GW in 2024 to 11.03GW in 2029.

Melamu also added, 'With strong support from the government and private sector, the solar industry in South Africa is expected to achieve significant growth.'.