Why Chinese Solar Panels Are Flooding The African Market

Chinese solar equipment is flooding into the African market, partly due to the ripple effects of the US-China trade war. This is one of several factors helping the continent make progress in electrification.

 

Solar power is widely seen as an ideal solution for Africa. Sunlight is abundant, economies are eager for reliable power sources, and the technology is becoming extremely cheap.

 

According to 2024 data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar is one of the cheapest energy sources globally, at just $0.044 (€0.03) per kilowatt-hour, as the price of solar photovoltaic modules has fallen by 90% in just 13 years.

 

So far, Africa's share of the global solar sector has been small. The continent's total installed capacity is just over 18 gigawatts (GW), accounting for only 1% of global solar PV generation. This is partly due to a lack of investment capital and existing grid infrastructure.

Now, the situation finally seems to be shifting.

 

A Flood of Chinese Solar Panels

 

Analysis of Chinese export data by the UK-based renewable energy think tank Ember indicates a massive influx of solar equipment into Africa. In just 12 months, China exported solar panels with a total capacity of 15 GW to the continent.

 

"Everyone seems very optimistic about solar in Africa," John van Zuylen, CEO of the pan-African lobby group Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), told DW.

 

Based on historical export data, AFSIA estimates Africa's total installed solar capacity since 2000 at around 75 GW, significantly higher than IRENA's figure. According to van Zuylen, many small-scale and off-grid applications rarely appear in official statistics.

 

"But even if you take the 75 GW figure, 75 GW over 25 years compared to 15 GW in just 12 months gives you a sense of the current momentum in Africa."

 

A significant portion of this (around 3 GW) comes from a major project in Algeria. But van Zuylen says several sub-Saharan African countries are also making progress, including Zambia, Rwanda, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, and Nigeria.

 

"Nigeria is growing very strongly. And I think Nigeria has a chance to become the number one solar market in Africa quite soon, overtaking South Africa, because Nigeria has run on diesel for years - subsidized and artificially low diesel prices," van Zuylen said. For many Nigerians, solar is now the cheapest option, according to the AFSIA executive.

 

New countries are entering the solar market. For example, Liberia is seeking to diversify its clean energy mix, which relies heavily on hydropower. On the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Emmanuel K. Urey Yarkpawolo, Executive Director of Liberia's Environmental Protection Agency, said the country's first solar park is nearing completion.

 

"We have about 20 megawatts of solar that will be connected to the grid by the end of this year, maybe early next year. The progress is very fast, and there are many more projects in the pipeline," Yarkpawolo told DW.

 

In Niger, solar power has boomed since neighboring Nigeria suspended energy supplies due to ECOWAS sanctions.

 

Is it just the US-China trade war?

 

There are multiple factors behind this, van Zuylen says, while some commentators believe China's export boom is at least partly a result of the US-China tariff standoff. The US Donald Trump administration even threatened tariffs of up to 3521% on solar panels from Southeast Asia at one point.

 

"When the trade war started, the cost of equipment fell. Chinese manufacturers were in a rush to offload," Farwinn Nyakudyara, Managing Director of Zimbabwe's PFN Solar Systems, told DW. "I'd say it's been positive for us. The Chinese had no other option but to treat us well because they knew if they treated us badly again, we wouldn't buy from them next."

 

Solar installers in Zimbabwe have also felt the price impact of the US-China trade war. According to World Bank 2023 data, 565 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. Kenyan economist James Shikwati says the imported technology is desperately needed.

 

"Whether it comes from China, the US, or Europe, I think Africans would say, this is great. So I think indirectly, the tariff war has created possibilities for Africans to access cheap energy," Shikwati told DW.

 

India is also a supplier of solar equipment to Africa, but importers prefer China due to lower prices.

 

Nyakudyara believes Chinese suppliers are already adapting to the new market reality and controlling output to maintain profitability.

 

"There is a serious shortage at the moment, especially in solar panels and lithium batteries. Many distributors and importers are saying they don't have panels now. The offloading lasted only a short while, but now there is a serious shortage," Nyakudyara said.

 

Storage and Net Metering Make Solar More Profitable

 

Lithium batteries have become affordable for both household users and utility-scale operators. Thanks to battery storage solutions, solar energy can be stored for use during evening peak hours.

 

Net metering - where households with rooftop solar panels feed unused surplus power back into the grid in exchange for bill credits - is also paying off.

 

This can increase profitability fivefold, says AFSIA CEO van Zuylen. "If you need to consume solar power immediately when it's generated, then typically you can only cover about 20% of your total consumption. But if you have a net metering system, then you can suddenly install enough solar panels to meet 100% of your consumption needs."

 

Countries like Kenya, Namibia, and Zimbabwe have already implemented this system, long established in many European nations.

 

Green energy storage containers like these, made in Germany, are also becoming cheaper.