Global Silicon Wafer Prices Remain Stable, But Prices May Rise Amidst Changes in Trade Policies

Recently, OPIS, a subsidiary of Dow Jones, introduced the main price trends in the global photovoltaic industry.
This week, FOB prices for single crystal PERC silicon wafers in China remained stable, with prices for single crystal PERC M10 and G12 wafers at $0.138 and $0.196, respectively. Similarly, the FOB prices of n-type M10 and G12 silicon wafers in China have remained stable at 0.132 US dollars per wafer and 0.178 US dollars per wafer per week, respectively.

It is reported that M10 silicon wafers are produced through customized orders and do not require continuous inventory maintenance. Compared with G12 silicon wafers, the profit margin is relatively high.

At a time when Chinese silicon wafer companies are generally reducing production on a large scale, there are reports that the operating rates of some silicon wafer factories have rebounded. Industry insiders attribute this recovery in part to component manufacturers accelerating the procurement of production materials to improve production and sales performance in 2024.

In addition, according to the revised "Guidelines for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standards and Conditions" released by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in July this year, qualified solar manufacturers must achieve at least 50% of their actual annual production capacity for that year. Industry insiders believe that manufacturers with consistently low operating rates this year may need to accelerate production, as failure to meet this condition could limit their future development prospects.

According to reports, there is only one integrated manufacturer in the United States whose ingot project is close to production. All other announced ingot projects have not yet started construction, leading industry insiders to believe that due to the large amount of capital and complex technical processes required for ingot production, these projects are unlikely to achieve output in the next two years.

With China's decision to reduce the export tax rebate for solar products (including silicon wafers) from 13% to 9% starting from December 1st, the international trade situation is facing further challenges. Therefore, market participants expect the price of Chinese silicon wafer export orders to rise in the short term.

It is expected that this policy will not have a significant impact on the demand for exported silicon wafers, as China remains a major global supplier and there are currently no viable alternative sources. However, both buyers and sellers of silicon wafers acknowledge that negotiating price increases remains a challenging process. A 4% price fluctuation has placed a significant burden on both manufacturers and customers, especially during periods of sustained market downturn.

Sources believe that it is unrealistic for customers to accept a 4% price increase overnight, and the specific pricing strategy is still under discussion. We are currently considering adopting a gradual price adjustment method, especially for long-term stable buyers.

For orders that have already been priced and are planned to be delivered after December 1st, silicon wafer suppliers are actively exploring the possibility of renegotiating prices with customers. Or some companies have adopted a strategy of hastily booking cabin space and passing through customs before December. However, this method has limitations as early delivery depends on whether the customer's site can accommodate it and whether it will incur additional storage costs for the customer.